2024

The 2024 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, Middle East & Africa, North America, Southeast Asia. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.

• Global Investment Outlook 2024 — The Capex Turn — 2024 was the year the AI trade stopped being about software margins and started being about physical infrastructure. That shift changed which investors could participate, what returns looked like, and how long capital had to be committed for.
• US Venture Capital Report 2024 — Two Markets — In 2024 US venture capital stopped behaving like one market. Rate cuts arrived and exits did not reopen, because the constraint had moved somewhere the rate cuts could not reach.
• Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2024 — Positions in the Stack — The AI capital cycle reached Asia-Pacific mainly through the supply chain, which made the region's exposure fundamentally different from the West's. Owning the constraint is a better position than owning the application — until the constraint moves.
• Singapore Venture Capital Report 2024 — The Regional Balance Sheet — Singapore's venture numbers are the region's numbers wearing a Singapore label. Reading them correctly requires separating what is domiciled there from what is happening there — and the gap is where most of the useful information lives.
• Private Credit Report 2024 — Systemic Scale, Untested Claims — By 2024 private credit was large enough that its behaviour under stress had become a question about the financial system rather than about an asset class. It had reached that scale without ever having been through a default cycle.
• Europe Investment Report 2024 — Competitiveness Becomes the Frame — For a decade Europe's structural problems were discussed by specialists. In 2024 they became the organising frame of European economic policy — which is the necessary condition for changing rules, and not remotely a sufficient one.
• Israel Venture Capital Report 2024 — The Specialist Ecosystem — Israel produces venture-backed companies at a rate far above its size and sells most of them before they scale. That is not a failure of ambition — it is what an ecosystem optimised for deep technology and early acquisition actually looks like.